The Electoral College and How It Works:

In the United States, the victor of the presidential race is decided not by the popular vote, (that is the person who receives the most votes nationwide) but rather through a system known as The Electoral College.

The electoral college distributes a set number of votes (known as electoral votes) to each state based on each state’s population. The winner of any state’s popular vote, wins all of that state’s given electoral votes. For example, if a candidate wins a majority of the individual votes in Pennsylvania, that candidate would win all of Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes.

There are two exceptions to this rule: Maine and Nebraska. In these two states, electoral votes are awarded to the winner in each state’s congressional district. Additionally, the winner of the state’s overall popular vote is awarded an additional two electoral votes.

Washington D.C. also participates in the electoral process, receiving electoral votes equal to the least populous state (which is Wyoming with 3 votes).

Any candidate seeking the oval office must win a total of 270 electoral votes to secure the presidency.

Many states have a consistent voting history with a particular party. These states are considered “safe states,” meaning they are incredibly likely to vote for a given political party. However, most elections are decided by a set number of states wherein the popular vote is often close, these states are known as “swing states,” meaning they have the possibility of swinging to either given party.

Current Safe States for Biden:

Hawaii, Oregon, Washington, California, Illinois, New York, Vermont, Maine’s 1st Congressional District, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Washington D. C., and Maryland. These states equate to 183 electoral votes for Joe Biden.

Current Safe States for Donald Trump:

Alaska, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Utah, North Dakota, South Dakota, Kansas, Nebraska’s 1st Congressional District, Nebraska’s 3rd District, Nebraska-at-Large, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Indiana. These states equate to 125 electoral votes for Donald Trump.

The Swing States and Who Leads in Them:

Current polling indicates that Joe Biden holds a significant lead over Donald Trump in the remaining swing states. Biden currently holds comfortable leads in Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Michigan, Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, and Maine-at-Large. These states alone would push Biden to 269 electoral votes, 1 vote away from the presidency.

Biden is also marginally ahead in Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina, Florida, Maine’s 2nd District, and Nebraska’s 2nd District. Biden’s lead is minuscule in these states, but if won, they would propel him to a comfortable 335 electoral vote total.

For Donald Trump, the race is a bit more grim. Trump currently leads in Texas, Georgia, Ohio, and Iowa. These states equate to 78 electoral votes where Trump is currently ahead. Trump carried all of these states by substantial margins in 2016, and he now holds them by a mere thread. If the election were held today, Trump would receive 203 electoral votes, 67 shy of reelection.

The Pathways to Victory:

For Joe Biden, the pathway to victory is simple: maintain his current lead in key swing states. Biden’s most likely pathway to victory is winning back Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These states (which Trump won in 2016 by slim margins) have consistently voted Democratic on a statewide level.

Trump’s pathway to victory is narrow—but still achievable. In order for Trump to secure a second term, he must accomplish two tasks. Trump must first hold the competitive southern states of Arizona, North Carolina, and Florida. These states would put Trump within striking distance of winning reelection. He must then win any remaining state (Wisconsin seems to be his best bet) which would award him enough electoral votes to secure a second term.

Analysis

As we learned in 2016, anything can happen. While Biden holds a significant mathematical lead over Trump, Trump is still very much in this race. Whether it's Trump or Biden, we decide; with this in mind and pandemic aside, get out there and vote!