With Donald Trump’s announcement of a third presidential campaign three weeks ago, all eyes are on the Democrats to see who they’ll push through the primaries. And where are the Democrats? They don’t know either.

Let’s talk primaries.

Trump’s bid for re-election may bring his conspiracy theorist followers back out of the woodwork. However, in examining the midterm election results, we saw a common trend: Republicans are sick of Donald Trump. Candidates who ran on extreme conservatism got poor results and lost elections, even in historically conservative states.

Any candidate backed by Trump (hint—Dr. Oz) saw much worse results than predicted by the Fox News echo chambers. The “red wave” fell flat, and it’s because the Republican party has split down the middle—radical extremist election deniers and everyone else in the party. The division may lead to a collapse in the general election, but it will certainly make interesting television for the primaries.

But I’ll lean away from the GOP’s infighting for a moment. The Democrats, blessed with this Republican rift, need to get their ducks in a row before they can celebrate. President Biden still has not declared his intentions to run again––which, let’s be clear, he should not––and it’s leaving the party with no solid footing.

Without a candidate to back, the left side of American politics is pushed into a familiar corner. Instead of being pro-candidate, they are anti-Trump. It will be all too easy for liberals to be adamant that Trump cannot win reelection, just as they were in 2020, and, with no candidate to back instead, their position will be just as weak as it was before.

Biden has to decide soon what he’s going to do, because the Dems need someone to back before the Republican primary campaigns go into full swing.

If Trump is serious enough to go to the primaries, I predict he’ll lose. The Republican party is splitting, and enough time has passed since the election that even some more hard-right-leaning members of Congress have conceded the election. And this time around, a vote for Trump represents more extremist beliefs than it did in 2016 and 2020––it’s a decision with much more baggage attached. Candidates like Ron DeSantis are a more moderate and more “safe” vote in a polarized GOP.

If President Biden decides to run for reelection, I sincerely hope he loses the primary. Although he may have some supporters, he has disappointed a large portion of the Democratic party. Not being Donald Trump was enough for him to win in 2020; the Democrats were for the most part united in not wanting 45 to win another term. If it’s Biden against a candidate who is not Trump, I’d predict that we’ll have a Republican president elected in 2024.

Now, let’s talk general election.

Say, for the sake of argument, that Biden runs again and Trump does not win the GOP nomination; rather, a more moderate candidate gives Republicans a spot to dig their heels in. If this occurs, Biden will lose the general election. Democrats do not like the 46th president as much as they pretended to during his initial run: if that’s not obvious from the “settle for Biden” stickers and social media bios, it should at least be clear coming from disgruntled Dems who supported Biden earnestly but did not receive the things promised on the campaign trail.

Unfortunately for the left, Biden not winning the nomination is pretty unlikely. An incumbent elected official hasn’t lost their party’s primary nomination since Franklin Pierce in the 1850’s.

The odds are fairly clear to me: the Democratic party will be at a loss nominating Biden for president. If Biden wins the Democratic primary and Trump loses the Republican primary––and these cases seem likely—then the Democrats will lose by significant margins.

UNLESS . . .

In a hellish repeat of 2020, perhaps both Trump and Biden win their respective parties’ nominations. Then Americans must ask themselves who is worse, exactly as they did four years prior. That’s tough no matter which party. A series of questions will continue to intrigue political activists: has the Republican party fractured enough that they can’t rally behind Trump anymore? Are the Democrats able to support a lackluster candidate two elections in a row? Will Biden even make it to the end of the campaign? Do Dems consider Biden the candidate, or do they consider Kamala Harris?

These questions will hopefully never have to be asked or answered. All that we voters can do is wait with baited breath for 2024 when perhaps we could make America good again.